The Fed is banking on the August jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m., to inform whether to make a jumbo-sized rate cut or not. 

Consensus estimates see non-farm payrolls hitting 160,000 in August, up from 114,000 the prior month.

Unemployment is forecasted to dip from 4.3% to 4.2%. 

However, for better or worse, sizable revisions to jobs numbers have become table stakes. 

That’s why Opening Bell Daily likes to include internal LinkedIn data in our analysis.

The world’s most robust jobs platform shared exclusive metrics with us that specify which cities and industries are getting hit hardest as hiring decelerates. 

The state of the labor market, according to LinkedIn

LinkedIn’s data points to a weaker labor market than the consensus view based on government reports. 

Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, said the platform’s data has shown deterioration in hiring and quits all summer.

Healthcare and government jobs have accounted for most of the job growth. 

The following chart breaks down LinkedIn’s Hiring rate by industry.

Platform metrics show the overall Hiring Rate has slowed 7.9% in the 12 months up to July. 

“A collapse in gains in Local Government and Leisure and Hospitality contributed heavily to April’s slowdown in payroll expansion, and ongoing gains in Government and Healthcare and Social Assistance prevented a complete collapse in gains in July,” Kantenga said. 

Notably, the establishment report this week showed a decrease in government job openings from June to July, as the chart from LinkedIn’s Kantenga shows.

However, LinkedIn’s Hiring Rate for government roles did move lower in that stretch.

Zooming in on the last 12 months, tech and media jobs have been the standout, accelerating 7.2% from July 2023 to July 2024.

All other sectors have been down or flat.

That said, the tech and media industry has yet to return within range of pre-pandemic levels.

Neither have finance, retail, manufacturing, or food services. 

Hiring trends also vary by geography. Among the top 19 US metros, only five currently see hiring at the typical pre-pandemic level, according to LinkedIn data: 

• Nashville, Tennessee

• Dallas, Texas

• Austin, Texas

• Phoenix, Arizona

• Miami, Florida

While hiring has indeed slowed, individuals are still using LinkedIn to apply for jobs as aggressively as ever.

LinkedIn members are applying for jobs 9% more aggressively than last year, according to data up to June 2024.

That figure is also up 40% since June 2021, when tracking began. 

And LinkedIn’s Separate Rate shows the share of people leaving jobs has slowed compared to last year.

This suggests people are having a harder time landing new opportunities or that they are reluctant to switch companies. 

This metric is similar to quit rates, though it is better at tracking voluntary quits rather than people getting laid off or fired. 

It has been largely flat this summer. 

We hope you enjoyed this analysis, created in collaboration with LinkedIn. If you have comments or feedback, you can reply directly to this email, or share your thoughts on X and tag @philrosenn. 

Interview

Investor Anthony Pompliano and I discuss why the stock market is selling off, Kamala Harris’ capital gains tax proposal, and historic government spending:

Elsewhere:

🇺🇸Trump shared more details on his tariffs plan in a speech Thursday at the Economic Club of New York. The former president said if he’s elected he could implement even higher duties than previously mentioned. He also endorsed a government efficiency commission — first recommended by Elon Musk — and spoke of lowering the federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. (Yahoo Finance)

💰️Broadcom has big AI plans. The stock has gained 75% over the last year, and it announced a strong earnings beat on Thursday. Executives say the company intends to sell a record $12 billion worth of AI parts and custom chips for the fiscal year of 2024. (CNBC)

🛢️Oil keeps slumping. Brent crude, the international crude benchmark, is down roughly 8% this week and set for one of its biggest weekly losses all year. OPEC+ will delay a planned increase in output by two months, and other signs of poor demand have emerged across Chinese and Indian markets. (Bloomberg)

Last thing:

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