Happy hump day, investors. When Jamie Dimon speaks, the whole world listens. Today’s edition breaks down what’s been keeping the JPMorgan chief up at night. Was this email forwarded to you? Join 190,000 self-directed investors and sign up here. 

BREAKING: Shares of Nvidia fell more than 6% in overnight trading after it disclosed in an SEC filing that future sales of its H20 chips to China would require a license from the US government. Nvidia says this will result in a $5.5 billion charge to Q1 earnings.

The world’s most powerful banker sounds off

Jamie Dimon isn’t worried about a recession. He’s concerned the rules of the global economy might not hold.

In an interview with the Financial Times released Tuesday, the JPMorgan chief executive waved off the drumbeat of predictions and dismissed the practice entirely.

“It’s almost a waste of time to constantly be doing [recession outlooks] every single day,” Dimon said, noting that he’s focused on longer-term structural risks. “The economy is like the weather.”

Since President Trump began his tariff rollout, the world’s most powerful banker hasn’t been fixated on interest rates or inflation, but geopolitical fog — confusion, walk-backs, and policy uncertainty. 

Markets agree. While the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, has pulled back recently after surging as high as 60, it remains elevated above its historical average.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has dropped more than 12% from its February 19 record high and consumer sentiment recently fell to its lowest reading since the pandemic. 

And even though the Nasdaq Composite had its second-best session ever last week with more than a 12% one-day gain, the index’s 20 best days since 1971 have all come during “crisis periods,” not bull markets, according to DataTrek Research. 

Dimon’s comments reflect the broader concern that persistent uncertainty could erode trust in the US as an investment anchor and destination. 

“You might change how you invest,” Dimon said, “not because of a potential recession, but because you have a completely different point of view about the future.”

Over the last month, leading Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, have raised their recession odds for 2025, with economists largely pointing to repercussions from tariffs.

Dimon suggested that tariffs are warranted as far as they relate to national security, though he implied that broader trade barriers require far more strategic coordination.

He also said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent should be the one leading negotiations with other nations.

“There’s not a businessperson I speak to who doesn’t feel a little stressed, trying to figure out what this all means,” Dimon said.

Indeed, dealmaking and mergers have slowed, bearish sentiment is high, and prominent executives have called for more clarity from the White House.

Many of Dimon’s peers, including BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon, have issued versions of the same warning: This isn’t a normal economic disruption.

“I really almost don’t care fundamentally about what the economy does next,” Dimon said during JPMorgan’s earnings call on April 11. “That isn’t that important. To keep the world safe and free, that is the most important thing.”

Market snapshot

Elsewhere:

🤖 OpenAI could launch its own social media platform. The ChatGPT creator is reportedly mulling a new project to compete with Elon Musk’s X, though it remains in early stages. (The Verge)

🏦 Big banks still see steady consumer spending. Bank of America and Citigroup said Americans ramped up spending in the first quarter, even as tariff concerns began to bubble up. JPMorgan, too, said last week that credit- and debit-card spending rose to start the year. (WSJ)

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Rapid-fire:

• United beat earnings expectations but said it will cut flights due to lagging domestic demand (CNBC)

• Apple airlifted iPhones worth $2 billion from India in March to get ahead of tariffs (Reuters)

• Federal workers across the Departments of Defense, Energy and Transportation are now jumping at buyout offers (Bloomberg)

• President Trump promised that Nvidia will get expedited permits for its large US investments and manufacturing (Yahoo Finance)

• China is going after Boeing, the biggest US exporter, by telling Chinese airlines not to place new orders for its jets (WSJ)

• The US copper industry is calling on Trump to restrict exports of ore and scrap metal rather than impose tariffs on imports (Bloomberg)

Last thing:

About me:

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day, unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at [email protected].