Good morning, investors. Markets will be closed tomorrow for July 4th — but keep an eye on your inbox for a special holiday edition of the newsletter!

Data out Tuesday showed job openings unexpectedly climbed in May after months of the opposite. Hiring and layoff numbers both climbed, and there are now 1.2 jobs per unemployed worker, the lowest since June 2021.

However, it’s worth noting that 14 of the last 17 months have been revised lower.

In this edition: Tesla’s stock spike, Powell’s latest outlook, a labor market update, and hedge fund’s mild returns.

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Tesla gets closer to being in the green

Tesla just delivered in a big way — for its customers and shareholders. 

On Tuesday, shares of Elon Musk’s car maker climbed 9.3% following the company’s better-than-expected delivery numbers for the second quarter.

Tesla reported 443,956 deliveries in the three-month period, which is almost 5% lower than a year ago but still above Wall Street forecasts. 

Tesla’s stock price isn’t quite back to where it started this year, but the round trip is almost complete. 

The latest rally adds up to 30% returns over the last 30 days — a welcome reversal after a not-so-great first few months of 2024, which included layoffs, Cybertruck recalls, and a single-day stock decline of about 12% in January. 

It’s climbed more than 50% since it hit a one-year low on April 22.

As of Tuesday’s closing price, the stock remains down a little less than 8% year-to-date.

Many analysts had muted expectations for Tesla on account of choppy demand for EVs around the world.

The team at Wells Fargo, for one, said before the news that heightened competition and weaker interest in the US and Europe would drag on the EV sector for the foreseeable future.

Yet Chinese rivals Li Auto and XPeng, like Tesla, also saw better-than-expected deliveries on the quarter, which suggests the industry at large could be on the upswing.

Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, told clients Tuesday that the delivery figures mark a “huge comeback performance” for the company and a sign of good news to come”

“While it’s been a difficult period for Tesla and the company has been through some significant cost reductions (roughly 10%-15%) to preserve its bottom line/profitability, it appears better days are now ahead as the growth story returns.”

Deliveries aside, Ives said he’s looking toward Tesla’s RoboTaxi announcement in August, which should help investors get a clearer picture of how the stock is not just a bet on broader EV adoption. 

Ives again:

“We continue to believe that Tesla is more of an AI and robotics play than a traditional car company.”

Are you more bullish or bearish on Tesla for the next 12 months? Hit reply to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

*At a glance:

Elsewhere:

🏦Jerome Powell sees better balance in the labor market. Speaking Tuesday on a panel in Portugal, the Fed chief said US jobs still look strong and inflation does appear to be cooling as anticipated. He notably did not specify on a September rate cut, but seemed optimistic on recent data: “We’re getting kind of what we want to have.” (CNBC)

👷Manufacturing and government roles drove job openings in May. Health care also saw openings climb, and food services and accommodation led all industries in declines. Meanwhile, construction and business services saw the biggest jump in hiring. As far as the number of people leaving their jobs — the so-called quits rate — that hovers at the lowest level since 2020. (Yahoo Finance)

💰️Most hedge funds are lagging the S&P 500 this year. However, Citadel and Millennium posted solid gains the last six months, up 8.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Those both lagged the 15.2% seen in the benchmark stock index, but they still beat the 5.2% seen by hedge funds on average. (FT)

Rapid-fire:

• The short-seller Hindenburg Research says it came out roughly even after betting against Adani Group during it’s massive stock plunge (WSJ)

• Moderna stock ticked higher after it announced it received $176 million from the US government for a bird flu vaccine (Barron’s)

• The bond market is acting like Trump will win (Business Insider)

• Robinhood is considering a new offering for crypto futures in the US and Europe (Bloomberg)

• New home construction varies by a wide margin across regions, with one market in Florida leading the way with more than 20% of active listings that are newly built (ResiClub)

• The small-cap Russell 2000 has officially lost one of its top performers, Super Micro Computer (Barron’s)

Last thing:

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