Today kicks off one of Wall Street’s most consequential weeks of the year. The S&P 500 shed more than 1% last week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped more than 2.3%.

Here are the biggest events to watch in the coming days:

• Fed meeting and interest rate decision Wednesday

• Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft all report earnings

• 171 total companies from the S&P 500 report earnings

• July jobs report due Friday

Before we get into those items, it’s time to unpack Trump’s bitcoin speech that shook the internet.

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The United States of Bitcoin

Donald Trump spoke before a raucous, pro-crypto crowd in Nashville, Tennessee on Saturday about what he would do for their industry if elected president.

Among the internet-breaking promises he made as the headliner at the Bitcoin Conference:

• He would fire Gary Gensler, the anti-crypto SEC chairman

• Establish a strategic bitcoin reserve

• Turn the US into the bitcoin “superpower of the world”

• Usher more bitcoin mining into the US

Trump’s call to fire Gensler drew particular enthusiasm from the crowd. 

“It’s hard to believe that there might be a few million voters whose singular issue in the upcoming election is the defenestration of the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, but it might actually be true,” wrote Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, in a note Sunday.

The price of bitcoin fluctuated during the speech.

It’s up roughly 54% year-to-date.

“You are building America’s future with your own smarts, your own grit, and your own skin in the game,” Trump said. “My job will be to set you free.”

Naturally, Trump — who has campaigned as the crypto-friendly candidate for months — took a shot at the Biden-Harris administration during his speech.

The two of them, he said, repress the industry through their “anti-crypto crusade”:

“Let me tell you if they win this election, every one of you will be gone. They will be vicious. They will be ruthless. They will do things that you wouldn’t believe.”

Meanwhile, the former president vowed to create a new crypto advisory council consisting of individuals who love the industry.

Recall that just a few years ago Trump dismissed bitcoin as an asset that drew value from “thin air” and helped facilitate illegal dealings around the world.

He’s since changed his tune completely — and has accepted millions in crypto donations for his campaign. 

“If bitcoin is going to the moon, as we say, it's going to the moon, I want America to be the nation that leads the way,” Trump said.

Now, his commentary on building a strategic bitcoin reserve is particularly notable.

This would mean that the Federal Reserve would begin allocating the token as part of its portfolio of reserves, which currently includes gold and other foreign currencies. 

Ari Redbord, the global head of policy at the blockchain research firm TRM Labs, said a move like this would diversify US holdings and could offer a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies. 

“This would likely prompt the development of new regulatory frameworks and policies to manage, protect, and utilize bitcoin holdings effectively,” Redbord said. 

In a note Sunday, Redbord highlighted several other implications: 

• It’s an endorsement for blockchain technology

• Position the US as a global leader in crypto, which Trump wants

• It would make the US’ reserve portfolio more volatile  

Clips of Trump’s speech have garnered hundreds of millions of views across X over the last two days. 

His latest remarks follow a failed assassination attempt on him, Biden’s announcement to not seek reelection, and the emergence of Kamala Harris — nearly two decades younger than Trump — as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

As of Sunday evening, the crypto betting platform Polymarket puts Trump’s victory odds at 57%, ahead of Harris’ 40%.

Comments or feedback? Hit reply to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

*At a glance:

Elsewhere:

✂️ One Fed rate cut isn’t that big of a deal. With economic data cooling, calls have been getting louder for the Fed to act. But monetary policy is not a light switch. It will take time for the economy to respond to the adjustment. Plus, if the Fed lowers its benchmark rate from 5.5% to 5.25%, policy does becomes less restrictive — yet that doesn’t mean it isn’t still very tight. (TKer.co)

📉 The Nasdaq 100 is down 8% from its peak earlier this month. The violent rotation out of Big Tech and into small-cap stocks has come on the eve of critical earnings. The stakes are high as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon prepare to share quarterly results this week. If they don’t meet expectations, the whole market could crumble. (Bloomberg)

🌀 S&P 500 earnings have been mixed so far. While the share of companies reporting positive earnings surprises is above average, the magnitude of those surprises are below average. Overall, 41% of companies in the index have reported earnings, and more than three-quarters of those names have beat estimates. (FactSet)

Rapid-fire:

• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for June gained 2.5% annually, slightly lower than the prior month (CNBC)

• Financial services firm Cantor Financial will open a $2 billion bitcoin lending business (CoinDesk)

• Kamala Harris raises $200 million in first week of campaign (AP)

• Regional banks are taking billions in losses selling bonds as they prepare for Fed rate cuts (Yahoo Finance)

• The German economy isn’t generating meaningful growth and business confidence is plunging (Bloomberg)

• Since 2022, the US mortgage market has been stuck in one of its worst downturns ever (ResiClub)

Last thing:

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