Happy Veterans Day, and thank you to those who served. The stock market is open today but bond trading is closed until Tuesday.

Today’s edition is packed with charts comparing how markets responded to Trump’s first and second terms.

Let’s dive in.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up to receive this newsletter directly in your inbox.

Markets then and now

The stock market goes up under any president, but there’s only one Oval Office chief who Wall Street has named an investment play after. 

The Trump Trade has ballooned into a broad, market-wide rally since Donald Trump won the election against Kamala Harris.

The prospect of his second term has already boosted crypto, equity-heavy retirement funds, and stocks tied to immigration and private prisons. 

The benchmark S&P 500, for one, was positive in 2016 as it is in 2024, though the latest returns year-to-date have more than tripled what happened during Trump’s first run. 

A few days after the election, the S&P 500 is up 26% in 2024.

At the same point in the year in 2016 it was up 7.4%. 

Similarly, small-cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 have rallied on optimism for a Trump administration. 

The index is up 19.22% year-to-date 2024, beating the 11.1% gain seen up to this point in 2016.

As far as individual stocks, no company has seen a bigger turnaround compared to Tesla — largely on account of Elon Musk’s newfound friendship with Trump. 

Tesla stock had lost momentum in the months leading up to the 2016 election and ultimately closed that year down 4.35%. This year, however, it saw a massive summer rally and then a sharp double-digit spike Wednesday as Trump secured a new term. 

Tesla is up more than 29% year-to-date.

Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs pose a looming uncertainty for Chinese equities. 

A recent slate of stimulus measures from Beijing have powered the CSI 300 to a roughly 25% gain since October, though that fuel could run out depending on Trump’s upcoming policy decisions. 

The Chinese benchmark index was negative on the year by the election date, and finished the year down 4.58%.

Finally, bitcoin has outperformed up to November 10 in 2024 compared to 2016, hitting multiple record highs and breaking above $81,000 for the first time ever on Sunday.

Trump is poised to be the most pro-crypto president in history, and markets are beginning to calibrate for various token-friendly decisions that could come from Washington over the next several years. 

Bitcoin had gained 63% up to November 10 in 2016.

In 2024, it’s up more than 75%.

Comments or feedback? Reply directly to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

Elsewhere:

📈Stock records everywhere. The S&P 500 and Dow just capped off their best week in a year following Trump’s win, with both indexes notching record closes Friday and finishing more than 4.6% higher each over the five-day stretch.

🇺🇸 Voter demographics shifted big this election. The data show poorer, less-educated voters heavily favored Trump over Harris — a reversal of 12 years ago, when Obama captured most of the low-income demographic. Democratic support increasingly depends on high-income, highly-educated coastal elites. (Financial Times)

📊Tariffs could hurt inflation long-term. That’s according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who warned that global trade partners could strike back if Trump enacts stringent tariffs: “The challenge becomes, if there’s a tit for tat and it’s one country imposing tariffs and then responses and it’s escalating.” (CNBC)

Rapid-fire:

• Bill Ackman seeks to terminate the Amsterdam listings of Pershing Square Holdings and Universal Music Group after violent antisemitic attacks in the Dutch capital (WSJ)

• Risky emerging market bonds are luring traders ahead of the new Trump era (Bloomberg)

• Solana, the fourth-largest crypto, hit a three-year high to join the $100 billion club Sunday as it participated in the broad cryptocurrency rally (CoinDesk)

• Cost-of-living concerns in the US has created a population of over-savers (Business Insider)

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of $127 billion in stocks this year while nearly doubling its cash position to $311 billion (Barron’s)

Last thing:

Interested in advertising in Opening Bell Daily? Email [email protected]